Bible
Verse Psalms 23:2-3 He makes me lie down
in green pastures, he leads me beside quiet waters, he
restores my soul. He guides me in paths of righteousness
for his name's sake.
BPL Update and a
Question Greetings! It's been a while since
there's been any discussion on this list, so I thought
I'd post a couple of thoughts.
First, concerning BPL, the ARRL has
authorized a "grass roots" effort on behalf of its
members whereby they're asking members to contact their
congressmen and urge them to help in the defeat of BPL.
If you've ever written your congressman, now's the time.
Additionally, they're asking for specific action in each
section to monitor and report on any potential BPL
installations.
As some of you may know, I'm
involved in the telecommunications industry, specifically
in the deployment of broadband services in rural America.
My push, however, is for fiber-to-the-home as an end-all
solution rather than half-hearted measures such as BPL.
As such, I have discovered at least two communities in
the mid-south who are considering BPL as a solution. In
both cases I advised against such installations primarily
because of (a) potential interference to existing
services, and (b) the potential cost of legal challenges
that would inevitably follow if such a system were
installed. So far, BPL has not been the preferred method
in places I know of.
Please become pro-active in this
fight. We have the opposition on the defensive now, and
we need to keep them that way until sanity is resored in
the regulatory process - which might take a while! Check
out the web page at:
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/HTML/plc/cta/
There you'll not only find lots of
info on BPL, but there's a sample letter you can copy and
edit to send to your congressmen.
ON A DIFFERENT TOPIC: Have any of
you paid any attention to the ARRL's proposal to petition
the FCC to change their method of authorizing emissions
in the Amateur Bands from an emission-based system to a
bandwidth-based system? I'm not sure I understand all the
ramifications of this change, and the ARRL is asking for
comments. What do you folks think?
Post any responses to this list at:
bpl@bullockassociates.net
Thanks, and 73,
NOAA: August
2004 Update to Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Issued: 10
August 2004
SUMMARY
NOAA’s updated
outlook
for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane
season indicates a 45%
probability of an above-normal season, a 45% probability
of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a
below-normal season, according to a consensus of
scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's (NOAA) Climate
Prediction Center (CPC),
the Hurricane
Research Division (HRD),
and the National
Hurricane Center (NHC). See
NOAA’s
definitions of above-,
near-, and below-normal seasons.
The outlook calls for 12-15
tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of
these becoming major hurricanes. This predicted activity
reflects a likely continuation of increased hurricane
activity that began in 1995, reiterating our
pre-season
outlook issued May
17.
This outlook is based on favorable
conditions now in place in association with the
ongoing
active Atlantic multi-decadal
signal, which includes
warmer
than normal sea-surface
temperatures in the
tropical Atlantic. However, weak El Niño
conditions are possible during the next few months, which
makes the probability of an above-normal season slightly
less likely from that stated in May, and the probability
of a near-normal season slightly more likely. Whether El
Niño forms or not, considerable tropical storm and
hurricane activity is expected this season.
DISCUSSION
1. Expected Activity- 45%
chance above normal, 45% chance near normal, 10% chance
below normal
An important measure of the total
seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated
Cyclone Energy (ACE) index,
which accounts for the collective intensity and duration
of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during a given
hurricane season. The ACE index is also used to define
above-, near-, and below-normal hurricane seasons (see
Background
Information). For the 2004
Atlantic hurricane season the predicted ACE range is
90%-150% of the median. This range is slightly lower than
the 100%-160% range stated in the May outlook, and
reflects the increased possibility of weak El Niño
conditions during the peak of the season. An ACE value of
117% of the median corresponds to the lower boundary for
an above-normal season.
The likely range of tropical storms
during 2004 is 12-15, with 6-8 of these systems becoming
hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes
[categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson
scale]. While it is reasonable to expect
this range of tropical storms and hurricanes, the total
seasonal activity measured by the ACE index can certainly
be in the expected range without all three of these
criteria being met.
Even if a weak El Niño
develops, many of the tropical storms and hurricanes are
expected to form during August-October over
the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean
Sea between
9°N-21.5°N. Systems forming in this region
often become hurricanes and major hurricanes, and
generally track westward toward the Caribbean Sea and/or
United States as they strengthen. Historically,
normal-to-above normal hurricane seasons have averaged
2-3 landfalling
hurricanes in the
continental United States and 1-2 hurricanes in the
region around the Caribbean Sea. However, it is currently
not possible to confidently predict at these extended
ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes,
or whether a given locality will be impacted by a
hurricane this season.
2. Expected Climate Conditions
– Active Atlantic multi-decadal signal,
above-normal Atlantic SSTs, and borderline ENSO-neutral/
weak El Nino conditions
Beginning with 1995 all but two
Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal. The
exceptions are the two El Niño years of 1997 and
2002. This increased activity contrasts sharply with the
generally below-normal seasons observed during the
previous 25-year period 1970-1994. The atmospheric and
oceanic conditions controlling these very long-period
fluctuations in hurricane activity are referred to as the
Atlantic multi-decadal signal.
The active phase of the Atlantic
multi-decadal signal has been a primary contributing
factor to the increased hurricane activity since 1995
(Goldenberg et al. 2001). Key aspects of this signal
(Chelliah and Bell, 2004) are again in place, and are
conducive to an above normal season. These
aspects include 1)
warmer
SSTs across the tropical Atlantic,
2) an amplified subtropical ridge at upper levels across
the central and eastern North Atlantic, 3) reduced
vertical wind shear in the deep tropics over the central
North Atlantic, which results from an expanded area of
easterly winds in the upper atmosphere (green arrows) and
weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere (dark
blue arrows), and 4) a configuration of the African
easterly jet (wavy light blue arrow) that favors
hurricane development from tropical disturbances moving
westward from the African coast.
ENSO is another climate phenomenon
that can significantly impact seasonal Atlantic hurricane
activity (Gray 1984), with El Niño acting to
reduce activity and La Niña acting to increase
activity. The most recent ENSO
Diagnostic Discussion
issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates
borderline ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño conditions
in the tropical Pacific through August-October. If a weak
El Niño develops, it could produce enhanced
upper-level westerlies and increased vertical wind shear
over the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic.
These conditions would be less conducive to tropical
storm and hurricane development in that region. This
possibility of weak El Niño conditions, combined
with the active multi-decadal signal, is the basis for
predicting equal probabilities of an above-or near-normal
Atlantic hurricane season.
3. Multi-decadal fluctuations in
Atlantic hurricane activity
Atlantic hurricane seasons exhibit
prolonged periods lasting decades of generally
above-normal or below-normal activity. These
multi-decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity result
nearly entirely from differences in the number of
hurricanes and major hurricanes forming from
tropical
storms first named in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean
Sea. Tropical cyclone
activity during 1995-2003 has been considerably above
normal in response to the active phase of the Atlantic
multi-decadal signal. During 1995-2003 hurricane
seasons have averaged 13
tropical storms, 7.7 hurricanes, 3.6 major hurricanes,
and have an average ACE index of 159% of the median. NOAA
classifies all but two of these nine seasons (the El
Niño years of 1997 and 2002) as above normal. In
contrast, during the preceding 1970-1994 period,
hurricane seasons averaged 8.6 tropical storms, 5
hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, and had an average
ACE index of only 70% of the median. NOAA classifies
twelve (almost one-half) of these 25 seasons as being
below normal, and only three as being above normal (1980,
1988, 1989).
Time series of key atmospheric
wind parameters and
Atlantic
SSTs associated with the
Atlantic multi-decadal signal highlight the dramatic
differences between these above-normal and below-normal
periods. The active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal
signal was also present during the above-normal hurricane
decades of the 1950s and 1960s, as indicated by
comparing
Atlantic SSTs and seasonal ACE
values.
4. Uncertainties in the
Outlook
The primary uncertainties in this
outlook are whether a weak El Niño will develop
during August-October, and if it does develop, whether it
will be of sufficient strength to reduce late-season
hurricane activity. The latest statistical and dynamical
ENSO predictions indicate borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak
El Niño conditions through October.
However, there is considerable
uncertainty in these ENSO predictions. If El Niño
does not develop, the favorable conditions now in place
over the tropical Atlantic will likely result in an
above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. This likelihood
diminishes depending on how soon an El Niño
develops and how strong it becomes.
CAUTIONARY NOTES
1) It is currently not possible to
confidently predict at these extended ranges the number
or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, or whether a
particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this
season. Therefore, residents and government agencies in
coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain
hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall
seasonal outlook.
2) Far more damage can be done by
one major hurricane hitting a heavily populated area than
by several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas
or, of course, not making landfall at all. Therefore,
hurricane-spawned disasters can occur even in years with
near-normal or below-normal levels of activity.
Examples of years with near-normal levels of
activity that featured extensive hurricane damage and
numerous fatalities include 1960 (Hurricane Donna), 1979
(Hurricanes David and Frederic), and 1985 (Hurricanes
Elena, Gloria and Juan). Moreover, the nation's costliest
hurricane, Andrew in 1992, occurred during a season with
below normal overall activity.
References:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html
26 Beautiful
One-liners 1. Give God what's right -- not
what's left.
2. Man's way leads to a hopeless
end -- God's way leads to an endless hope.
3. A lot of kneeling will keep you
in good standing.
4. He who kneels before God can
stand before anyone.
5. In the sentence of life, the
devil may be a comma--but never let him be the
period.
6. Don't put a question mark where
God puts a period.
7. Are you wrinkled with burden?
Come to the church for a face-lift.
8. When praying, don't give God
instructions - just report for duty.
9. Don't wait for six strong men to
take you to church.
10. We don't change God's message
-- His message changes us.
11. The church is
prayer-conditioned.
12. When God ordains, He
sustains.
13. WARNING: Exposure to the Son
may prevent burning.
14. Plan ahead -- It wasn't raining
when Noah built the ark.
15. Most people want to serve God,
but only in an advisory position.
16. Suffering from truth decay?
Brush up on your Bible.
17. Exercise daily -- walk with the
Lord.
18. Never give the devil a ride --
he will always want to drive.
19. Nothing else ruins the truth
like stretching it.
20. Compassion is difficult to give
away because it keeps coming back.
21. He who angers you controls
you.
22. Worry is the darkroom in which
negatives can develop.
23. Give Satan an inch & he'll
be a ruler.
24. Be ye fishers of men -- you
catch them & He'll clean them.
25. God doesn't call the qualified,
He qualifies the called.
26. Read the Bible -- It will scare
the hell out of you.
Have a
great month
August 2004
Karl, WA5TMC
